Never Mind The Bar Charts

Conservative Party leadership election: who is going to win, and what does it mean for the Lib Dems?

What are Conservative Party members like? Who are they going to pick for party leader? And what does it mean for the Liberal Democrats?
Find out in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts, where I teamed up again with the Lib Dem Pod and ace expert, Professor Tim Bale.
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
The Lib Dem Pod.
Tim Bale on Twitter.
How do you make someone join a political party? One of the previous top shows with Professor Tim Bale.
Footsoldiers: political party membership in the 21st century - one of Tim Bale's great studies of party membership with colleagues: Bookshop (independent bookshops) / Amazon.*
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Hope and headaches for the Liberal Democrats?

How much more of a spring in our step should Liberal Democrats have after the Tiverton and Honiton win, and what are the lessons for the party?
After discussing this last week with the Lib Dem Pod team, for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts I invited back an outside expert, political scientist Paula Surridge.
Let's see how much cold water Paula has to pour on Lib Dem hopes...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
One, two, three Liberal Democrat Parliamentary by-election victories.
Last year's popular episode with Paula after Chesham & Amersham.
Graph from Will Jennings on the predictive power of Parliamentary by-elections. 
The similarities between North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton: Paula Surridge's two graphs - one and two. 
More in Common's polling and focus groups on trans rights.
Follow council by-election results.
UK in a Changing Europe website.
Follow Paula Surridge on Twitter.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Terrific Tiverton & Honiton Heaven

I joined the Lib Dem Pod team shortly after the amazing win for Richard Foord in Tiverton & Honiton to discuss how it happened and what it means. See what Sam, Richard, John and I made of the result...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Richard Foord's amazing win.
The wonderful Frank Doran.
The Lib Dem Pod - do go have a listen to their other episodes.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Red Wall, Red Herring? The economic insecurity driving British politics

I was really lucky to have Professor Jane Green as my guest for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts as she's co-author of an important new report into British politics: "Red Wall, Red Herring? Economic Insecurity and Voting Intention in Britain".
Along the way she politely demolished some of what I've said in the past and provided pointers for what the Liberal Democrats should do in the future.
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Red Wall, Red Herring? - full report from Jane Green and Roosmarijn de Geus.
One of the key findings from the report.
Will British politics become less volatile, and how important is ideology? - previous episode with Jane Green.
Professor Jane Green on Twitter.
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How did Labour, Tories and Lib Dems really do in the local elections?

Pollster Keiran Pedley joined me on Never Mind The Bar Charts to discuss what we can learn from the 2022 local elections and how Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems really did. Includes how I would have spun the results for Labour if I'd been in their press team and what Keiran thinks of my enthusiasm for the Liberal Democrat results.
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
How useful are the local elections for telling us about national trends?
Keir Starmer's approval ratings.
"Are you better off?" - Keiran's piece for the New Statesman.
Ipsos MORI polling archive.
Keiran Pedley on Twitter.
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What should Lib Dems make of the 2022 local elections?

I joined John Potter from the Lib Dem Pod podcast, along with Welsh leader Jane Dodds and Scottish campaign maestro Kevin Lang to talk about the 2022 local elections. Here's what we made of the results and what to do next...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
The Lib Dem Pod podcast.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Famous polling errors, what to do when polls go wrong and more...

This month's edition of Never Mind The Bar Charts features my recent appearance on another podcast - the UK in a Changing Europe's Brexit and Beyond podcast, talking about opinion polls and my new book all about them with the ever-excellent Paula Surridge.
 
Show notes
 
The Brexit and Beyond podcast, complete with lots of previous excellent episodes to enjoy.
Get your own copy of Polling Unpacked: the history, uses and abuses of political opinion polls.
Paula Surridge on Twitter.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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How are Labour and the Lib Dems doing? (2022 update with Tim Bale)

It was a warm welcome back to Professor Tim Bale in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts as we returned to the five tests for an opposition party that Tim discussed before. Now we're in 2022, how are Labour and the Liberal Democrats doing on those tests? Listen on to find out...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Previous review of state of Labour and the Liberal Democrats with Tim Bale.
Tim Bale's Golden Halo research with colleagues, updated here.
Caitlin Milazzo's appearance talking about how political leaflets are changing.
What voters do and don't know about how finished first and second in their constituency.
Albert Hirschman's Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Bookshop (independent bookshops) / Amazon.*
Small target strategies in Australian politics.
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* This list includes affiliate links which generate a commission for each sale made.

Using online advertising to tell Russians the truth about Ukraine

Internet advertising does not have the best of reputations. But when it comes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ability to slip adverts telling the truth pass the eyes of Russian regulators makes it a way of battling Putin's disinformation campaigns. So for the the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts I spoke with Rob Blackie, the public front for a network of volunteers who are running online adverts to get the truth to ordinary Russians.
 
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
 
Show notes
 
Donate to the advertising campaign here.
Marina Ovsyannikova protests on Russian TV.
TV host blocks one minute silence for Russian war dead.
Why internet censorship struggles with some words.
Rob's previous appearances on the podcast.
Rob Blackie on Twitter.
Photo by Mathias P.R. Reding on Pexels.com.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Birthday cake versus demographics: which will determine the future of British politics?

 
It was great to welcome back Professor Rob Ford for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts and to discuss with him both the long-term trends shaping British politics and how they may or may not be seen off by short term factors, such as a birthday cake.
 
Which means we also got into how grim, or not, the future looks for the Conservative Party. Take a listen to find out what we concluded...
 
 
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
 
Show notes
 
Rob Ford's previous appearance on the podcast to talk about his book, Brexitland.
His co-author Maria Sobolewska also talking about the book.
How Australia got compulsory voting.
Ipsos-MORI leader ratings.
The Daily Express front page being cited by Boris Johnson loyalists.
How I was partly right but also massively wrong about Boris Johnson in 2019.
Brexitland: Identity, Diversity and the Reshaping of British Politics by Rob Ford and Maria Sobolewska: Bookshop.org (independent bookshops) / Waterstones / Amazon.*
The British General Election of 2019 by Rob Ford, Tim Bale, Will Jennings and Paula Surridge: Bookshop.org (independent bookshop) /  Amazon / Waterstones.*
Professor Rob Ford on Twitter.
Cake photo by jgojtan from Pixabay.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
New to listening to podcasts? Here are some tips on how to listen to podcasts.
 
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* This list includes affiliate links which generate a commission for each sale made.