Never Mind The Bar Charts

How have Labour and the Lib Dems done in 2022?

It was a warm welcome back to Professor Tim Bale for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts. We revisited the five tests for opposition parties we've discussed before. How have Labour and the Lib Dems been performing against them?
Take a listen to find out...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Our original discussion of five tests for opposition parties.
Our December 2020 and March 2022 updates.
Jon Mellon's research into how well people know the result last time in their own constituency.
The YouGov 0-10 voting propensity tracker.
Pre-order Tim Bale's new book, The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation: Amazon.*
Tim Bale on Twitter.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Talking political polling, with the No Man’s Land podcast

I recently appeared on the No Man's Land podcast, which describes itself as a, "pod on politics and centrism, for those stuck between political trenches". But rather than talk about whether or not the Liberal Democrats should aim to be centrist, we talked political polling.
Hope you enjoy the conversation, which we recorded before Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
No Man's Land podcast.
Host Steve O'Neil on Twitter.
My book, Polling UnPacked.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Where next for British politics?

A nice easy question for me and Callum Robertson to chew over in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts. Here's what we made of it...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Labour NEC member deselected as a councillor.
The core vote argument.
Michael Crick's Twitter account tracking Parliamentary selection contests.
Callum Robertson on Twitter.
For a Fair Deal: the Lib Dem plan for the UK.
Sam Seaborn on taxing the rich on The West Wing.
Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World by Edward Fieldhouse and others: Amazon, Bookshop, Waterstones.* 
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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The cancellation of the Lib Dem autumn conference

I joined John Potter and the Lib Dem Pod team for a special show looking at why the party cancelled its autumn federal conference in Brighton. We talked about the decision with Federal Conference Committee Chair, Cllr Nick da Costa, Cllr Hannah Kitching and PPC Laura Gordon. 
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Why conference was cancelled and the alternatives considered.
Latest information on hotel and travel refunds.
The Lib Dem Pod podcast.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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It was the Blue Wall, not the Red Wall, that triggered Brexit

Podcast favourite Tim Bale has a new book out about how Brexit happened - both why the referendum was called and then why it was lost. Discussing his book on the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts we get into how the real trigger of Brexit was the Blue Wall, not the Red Wall. Take a listen to find out why...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Tim Bale on Twitter.
Michael Crick's Twitter account about MP selections.
Jonathan Portes's article on what Leave campaigners promised on immigration.
Brexit: an accident waiting to happen? Why David Cameron called the 2016 Referendum - and why he lost it by Tim Bale: Amazon.*
For the record by David Cameron: Amazon, Bookshop, Waterstones.* 
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
Photo by Samuel Regan-Asante on Unsplash.
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* Includes affiliate links which generate a commission for each sale made.

Conservative Party leadership election: who is going to win, and what does it mean for the Lib Dems?

What are Conservative Party members like? Who are they going to pick for party leader? And what does it mean for the Liberal Democrats?
Find out in the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts, where I teamed up again with the Lib Dem Pod and ace expert, Professor Tim Bale.
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
The Lib Dem Pod.
Tim Bale on Twitter.
How do you make someone join a political party? One of the previous top shows with Professor Tim Bale.
Footsoldiers: political party membership in the 21st century - one of Tim Bale's great studies of party membership with colleagues: Bookshop (independent bookshops) / Amazon.*
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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* This list includes affiliate links which generate a commission for each sale made.

Hope and headaches for the Liberal Democrats?

How much more of a spring in our step should Liberal Democrats have after the Tiverton and Honiton win, and what are the lessons for the party?
After discussing this last week with the Lib Dem Pod team, for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts I invited back an outside expert, political scientist Paula Surridge.
Let's see how much cold water Paula has to pour on Lib Dem hopes...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
One, two, three Liberal Democrat Parliamentary by-election victories.
Last year's popular episode with Paula after Chesham & Amersham.
Graph from Will Jennings on the predictive power of Parliamentary by-elections. 
The similarities between North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton: Paula Surridge's two graphs - one and two. 
More in Common's polling and focus groups on trans rights.
Follow council by-election results.
UK in a Changing Europe website.
Follow Paula Surridge on Twitter.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Terrific Tiverton & Honiton Heaven

I joined the Lib Dem Pod team shortly after the amazing win for Richard Foord in Tiverton & Honiton to discuss how it happened and what it means. See what Sam, Richard, John and I made of the result...
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Richard Foord's amazing win.
The wonderful Frank Doran.
The Lib Dem Pod - do go have a listen to their other episodes.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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Red Wall, Red Herring? The economic insecurity driving British politics

I was really lucky to have Professor Jane Green as my guest for the latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts as she's co-author of an important new report into British politics: "Red Wall, Red Herring? Economic Insecurity and Voting Intention in Britain".
Along the way she politely demolished some of what I've said in the past and provided pointers for what the Liberal Democrats should do in the future.
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
Red Wall, Red Herring? - full report from Jane Green and Roosmarijn de Geus.
One of the key findings from the report.
Will British politics become less volatile, and how important is ideology? - previous episode with Jane Green.
Professor Jane Green on Twitter.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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How did Labour, Tories and Lib Dems really do in the local elections?

Pollster Keiran Pedley joined me on Never Mind The Bar Charts to discuss what we can learn from the 2022 local elections and how Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems really did. Includes how I would have spun the results for Labour if I'd been in their press team and what Keiran thinks of my enthusiasm for the Liberal Democrat results.
Feedback very welcome, and do share this podcast with others who you think may enjoy it.
Show notes
How useful are the local elections for telling us about national trends?
Keir Starmer's approval ratings.
"Are you better off?" - Keiran's piece for the New Statesman.
Ipsos MORI polling archive.
Keiran Pedley on Twitter.
Theme tune by Hugo Lee.
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